Finally, 'I Live For This' has arrived.
The postseason begins in mere minutes for the eight teams fortunate enough to advance this far, and there's no time like the present for analyzing the matchups. First, I'll begin with the first game of the day, St. Louis vs. San Diego.
Two cities founded on religious fervor experience faith of a different sort.
It's Midwest versus Pacific Coast. Toasted ravioli against fish tacos. French outpost at war against Spanish mission. Furthermore, these two teams couldn't be much more different with respect to their regular season experiences. The Cardinals, fresh off their National League pennant in 2004, picked up where they left off and clinched the Central division with two weeks left in the year. The Padres had a reasonable lead for much of the season and waited until September 29 to win the West with an 82-80 record. Unlike the Redbirds, the Friars faltered enough down the stretch to make the Giants' late-season charge a bit compelling.
Bust out the whooping sticks.
Should the Cards be able to do so, it could be a brief series for the Pads. 1B Albert Pujols is a perennial MVP candidate, CF Jim Edmonds still hits for power, and despite the injury to star 3B Scott Rolen have nice depth for a National League lineup. However, injuries have plagued the lineup, from outfielders Larry Walker to Reggie Sanders. The Padres are not bereft of quality hitters, either, although OF Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko could do well to provide a few homers for the club. The trouble is, the top several batters in the lineup are not well protected by the rest of the squad, so intentionally walking Giles or allowing a double to 2B Mark Loretta may not hurt you as much as it would against better offensive teams.
Edge: Cardinals
Am I hot or not?
Often, teams will choose postseason starting pitchers not on based on the career of a particular hurler, but rather on how that individual finished the season. The Cardinals start Chris Carpenter in Game 1, who struggled in September despite a Cy Young-caliber season. The Padres will go with Jake Peavy, who excelled in his start against the Cards on July 27 and has terrific numbers in 2005. The trouble is, the Padres have minimal rotation depth, which doesn't hurt as much in the playoffs, but still might derail the team's chances of shutting down the opposing offense. Matt Morris has had his difficulties, but I'll take him and Mark Mulder over Adam Eaton and Pedro Astacio at this point in the year.
Edge: Cardinals
That's a bunch of bull!
The good news: San Diego has a superior bullpen, with Scott Linebrink setting up Trevor Hoffman as well as middle relievers Clay Hensley and Rudy Seanez despite Chris Hammond getting hurt. The Cardinals are reeling from an injury in the final regular season contest to Al Reyes, so they may rely on closer Jason Isringhausen more than usual. Lefty Randy Flores and longtime big league Julian Tavarez will have to fill some of the void.
Edge: Padres
Let's see some D!
I believe that defense is sometimes overrated, but in the postseason a critical error can dramatically change the tone of a particular series. Over the year, Cardinal fielders committed nine fewer errors than the Padres with very comparable putout numbers. Using Baseball Prospectus' formula for fielding percentage, St. Louis compiled a fielding percentage of .984 compared to San Diego's .981. Of course, in the playoffs teams tend to use a narrower range of players than over a full 162 games.
Edge: Push
Riding the pine can pay off.
Does anyone remember defensive replacement Jim Leyritz's key home run in Game 3 of the 1996 World Series? Just because a player fails to start a particular game doesn't mean he can't have an impact. Because a team needs fewer pitchers during the playoffs, benches tend to expand compared to the regular season (40-man rosters notwithstanding). In sifting through the playoff rosters, 2B Hector Luna looks like the super sub for St. Louis, hitting .285 in close to 140 at-bats for the big club. Luna also stole ten bases, while OF So Taguchi swiped 11 in far more games. The Pads have speed in outfielder Eric Young and center fielder Dave Roberts is a true blazer whether he begins a game or not. Former Cal player Xavier Nady has a little pop, and Damian Jackson is a nice utility guy particularly for a Senior Circuit team that may do some double switching.
Edge: Slight, to Padres
Verdict: Cardinals, in 4
baseball
The postseason begins in mere minutes for the eight teams fortunate enough to advance this far, and there's no time like the present for analyzing the matchups. First, I'll begin with the first game of the day, St. Louis vs. San Diego.
Two cities founded on religious fervor experience faith of a different sort.
It's Midwest versus Pacific Coast. Toasted ravioli against fish tacos. French outpost at war against Spanish mission. Furthermore, these two teams couldn't be much more different with respect to their regular season experiences. The Cardinals, fresh off their National League pennant in 2004, picked up where they left off and clinched the Central division with two weeks left in the year. The Padres had a reasonable lead for much of the season and waited until September 29 to win the West with an 82-80 record. Unlike the Redbirds, the Friars faltered enough down the stretch to make the Giants' late-season charge a bit compelling.
Bust out the whooping sticks.
Should the Cards be able to do so, it could be a brief series for the Pads. 1B Albert Pujols is a perennial MVP candidate, CF Jim Edmonds still hits for power, and despite the injury to star 3B Scott Rolen have nice depth for a National League lineup. However, injuries have plagued the lineup, from outfielders Larry Walker to Reggie Sanders. The Padres are not bereft of quality hitters, either, although OF Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko could do well to provide a few homers for the club. The trouble is, the top several batters in the lineup are not well protected by the rest of the squad, so intentionally walking Giles or allowing a double to 2B Mark Loretta may not hurt you as much as it would against better offensive teams.
Edge: Cardinals
Am I hot or not?
Often, teams will choose postseason starting pitchers not on based on the career of a particular hurler, but rather on how that individual finished the season. The Cardinals start Chris Carpenter in Game 1, who struggled in September despite a Cy Young-caliber season. The Padres will go with Jake Peavy, who excelled in his start against the Cards on July 27 and has terrific numbers in 2005. The trouble is, the Padres have minimal rotation depth, which doesn't hurt as much in the playoffs, but still might derail the team's chances of shutting down the opposing offense. Matt Morris has had his difficulties, but I'll take him and Mark Mulder over Adam Eaton and Pedro Astacio at this point in the year.
Edge: Cardinals
That's a bunch of bull!
The good news: San Diego has a superior bullpen, with Scott Linebrink setting up Trevor Hoffman as well as middle relievers Clay Hensley and Rudy Seanez despite Chris Hammond getting hurt. The Cardinals are reeling from an injury in the final regular season contest to Al Reyes, so they may rely on closer Jason Isringhausen more than usual. Lefty Randy Flores and longtime big league Julian Tavarez will have to fill some of the void.
Edge: Padres
Let's see some D!
I believe that defense is sometimes overrated, but in the postseason a critical error can dramatically change the tone of a particular series. Over the year, Cardinal fielders committed nine fewer errors than the Padres with very comparable putout numbers. Using Baseball Prospectus' formula for fielding percentage, St. Louis compiled a fielding percentage of .984 compared to San Diego's .981. Of course, in the playoffs teams tend to use a narrower range of players than over a full 162 games.
Edge: Push
Riding the pine can pay off.
Does anyone remember defensive replacement Jim Leyritz's key home run in Game 3 of the 1996 World Series? Just because a player fails to start a particular game doesn't mean he can't have an impact. Because a team needs fewer pitchers during the playoffs, benches tend to expand compared to the regular season (40-man rosters notwithstanding). In sifting through the playoff rosters, 2B Hector Luna looks like the super sub for St. Louis, hitting .285 in close to 140 at-bats for the big club. Luna also stole ten bases, while OF So Taguchi swiped 11 in far more games. The Pads have speed in outfielder Eric Young and center fielder Dave Roberts is a true blazer whether he begins a game or not. Former Cal player Xavier Nady has a little pop, and Damian Jackson is a nice utility guy particularly for a Senior Circuit team that may do some double switching.
Edge: Slight, to Padres
Verdict: Cardinals, in 4
baseball
posted by Alex at 9:55 AM
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