Wednesday, October 05, 2005

This may be a battle of red states, but for the next week only team colors will matter.
It sounds strange for a team with 14 consecutive division titles, but a check of Ticketmaster shows that tickets for the Atlanta Braves' upcoming division series with the Houston Astros are still readily available. Those who do show up to the first two games at Turner Field will be treated to a Braves team that has defied expectations and what could be a terrific pitching matchup with the 'Stros. While Atlanta began to take control of its postseason fate by early August, Houston did not punch its own ticket to the playoffs until the final day of the season.

Protection is important in baseball, too.
When former Phillies manager and current ESPN analyst Larry Bowa was asked about Houston's chances in this series, he responded bluntly: "I don't like their offense." To be fair, 3B Morgan Ensberg has tallied 101 RBI, Lance Berkman is a legitimate hitter, and Jason Lane has been streaky in putting together a 26 homer season. Still, some of the other batting averages on their lineup card won't make Atlanta's Game 1 starter Tim Hudson shudder, even if they have some proven vets. Sparkplug CF Willy Taveras will be called upon to run a little, but ultimately responsibility rests with the middle of Houston's order. Atlanta, meanwhile, has witnessed the emergence of outfield prospect Jeff Francoeur. Francoeur may have difficulty adjusting his swing-first style of hitting, but it's hard to argue with his .300 average or .549 slugging in his first major league experience. Then, of course, there's the bigs' top home run hitter, CF Andruw Jones and his recently healed teammate: 3B Chipper Jones. Chipper, who I can still remember being taunted as "Larry!" by screaming Giants fans, finished strong with 16 RBI in the final month. Even infielders Marcus Giles (45 doubles) and Rafael Furcal (46 stolen bases) contributed significantly to the cause.
Edge: Slight, to Braves

Is it hot in here, or is it just my ball?
If I were Houston catcher Brad Ausmus or Atlanta backstop Johnny Estrada, I'd look into wearing an oven mitt on my throwing hand, because pitchers in this series bring gas to the mound. The Astros send postseason hero Andy Pettitte, ageless phenomenon Roger Clemens (people usually say 'He could play 'til he's fifty' as hyperbole), and legitimate #1 Roy Oswalt in the first three. They are countered by (deep breath) Tim Hudson, John Smoltz, and stroke-of-genius acquisition Jorge Sosa. I can't think of a guy from those six who doesn't have tremendous stuff; these guys tend not to mess around with pure finesse. In light of Clemens' phenomenal ERA and Oswalt's continued brilliance, it's hard not to favor them a little. At the same time, injuries could tip the scales at any time, as there are mild doubts as to the health of both the Rocket and Smoltz.
Edge: Slight, to Astros

Starting pitchers should last a while, but what comes afterward?
In the case of Houston, there is reason for optimism after the main man has left the field. While no one can touch the raw power of Brad Lidge, Dan Wheeler has had a tremendous year setting him up. Chad Qualls is a likely seventh-inning option, and Mike Gallo was called on late in the season in some matchup situations. For the representatives of the Tomahawk Chop, the picture is a bit murkier in the late innings. Former Tiger Kyle Farnsworth has nice stuff as the closer, but the pen has seen both Dan Kolb and Chris Reitsma lose that role over the course of 2005. Reitsma has battled hamstring woes, but it seems unlikely that Bobby Cox will trust Kolb in particularly important spots. Blaine Boyer has been a great story for Leo Mazzone and company, however, and the team may look to starters like John Thomson in long relief.
Edge: Astros

What if those guys on the mound need a little help?
The good news for both clubs is the fact that they were the top two in the National League in avoiding errors (the Braves had three fewer). Of course, some of this may be traced back to the fact that pitching tends not to allow as many hard hit balls for nine innings. In any case, Andruw Jones may have lost a half step but can still play center field competently, and Furcal is a slick fielder. As far as the Astros are concerned, Ausmus has a good rapport with his pitchers and has caught 18 runners stealing; he may well need a good arm in this series. Chris Burke has thrown out 27 runners primarily from left field, although he is not a lock to play every day.
Edge: Braves

After eight innings, who will be able to confidently say, "Put me in, coach"?
Young Kelly Johnson has driven in 40 for Atlanta, especially while several regulars were injured. Either the ancient Julio Franco or the surprisingly productive Adam LaRoche will certainly be called upon at some point in a pinch. Wilson Betemit is their steals guy, and rookie Ryan Langerhans has the respect of the revered Cox. Houston's Phil Garner likes having a versatile journeyman like Jose Vizcaino around, and Mike Lamb played over 90 games partly because Lance Berkman missed action. Carrying two extra catchers is part of the Astros' equation.
Edge: Slight, to Braves

Verdict: Braves, in 5


0 Comments:

Post a Comment

<< Home