Saturday, October 22, 2005

Last posting's introduction aside, let's compare baseball's title contenders before the action gets going.

I've recently read about the myth of postseason smallball, but these managers will stick to their guns when it comes to manufacturing runs.
In any event, the Astros will help themselves if they can at least contain white-hot (no pun intended) first baseman Paul Konerko. Konerko's is in a contract year, he's on a roll in the postseason, and he's hitting for decent average to complement his considerable power. I can hear my Dodger fan friend scream once more in agony at the ineptitude of L.A. trading him as a prospect. He may have struggled last season, but in hindsight Chicago would have done well to lock him up afterward. Catcher A.J Pierzynski has been a welcome offensive force for Chicago, whether with the long ball or a heads-up run to first base. The Astros, meanwhile, have gotten several clutch homers from their chief power threat Lance Berkman, who has shifted to first base for Houston's club. Meanwhile, leading RBI man Morgan Ensberg (101) can have a major impact in the four hole. While we're on the littleball train, why not talk about the leadoff men on both sides? Scott Podsednik was enormous in getting the Sox off to their hot start, while Craig Biggio was clutch in the NLCS. Also, look for Houston manager Phil Garner to put speedster Willy Taveras in center field relatively often against the defensively conscious White Sox squad. Joe Crede may hit lower in the lineup than usual for Chicago but has pop, and Jason Lane is an extremely streaky hitter for the team from Texas. In the end, Houston holds a .272 batting average to Chicago’s .263 in postseason contests, but the White Sox have supplied more power (and naturally, these teams faced different pitching over a small sample size).
Edge: Push

Considering the starting pitching personnel, I'm glad this series isn't played on paper.
The White Sox are coming off a surreal Championship Series which included four consecutive complete games by starting pitching to close out the set. Jose Contreras seems to have found himself: don't look for shutouts from the Cuban, but two runs over seven innings is certainly attainable. The key to this series could be the performances of Freddy Garcia and Roger Clemens. The Rocket had a nearly unfathomable season by fantasy or any other standards, but his postseason ERA is a mere-mortal four and a half. Garcia had an outstanding performance in Anaheim: the question is whether he can continue to fulfill the expectations set for him when he began getting noticed in Seattle. The Jekyll-and-Hyde second half of Jon Garland, however, has yet to be seen in the playoffs, which is great news for South Siders. Forget what you hear to the contrary: Roy Oswalt is Houston's best pitcher from here on out.
Edge: Slight, to White Sox

It’s unlikely that Ozzie Guillen will confine his relievers as much in the Fall Classic.
A few reports emerged about what the Chicago bullpen did instead of entering pressure-packed games that their starters mostly finished. The answer: trivia contests and card games, which if you ask me, is a splendid way to earn your pay. Houston’s pen was a bit more involved in its six-game affair, which featured closer Brad Lidge’s meltdown that forced game 6. The White Sox should be warned: Lidge will make the most of his chances in this series, and no one on the roster is the equal of Albert Pujols. It looks as if Chicago will stick with Bobby Jenks to end games, although Neal Cotts (who did see slight action in the ALCS) can set him up nicely. It will be curious to see how much the enigmatic Damaso Marte or injury-plague Dustin Hermanson will appear, although Cliff Politte is a safe bet in close games. For Houston, Dan Wheeler has been a great find, and the former Met closed out the series against St. Louis. Furthermore, Chad Qualls has compiled a five-game scoreless streak since allowing two runs against Atlanta on October 7.
Edge: Slight, to Astos

Do these hurlers even need fielders lately?
It seems easy to believe that these pitchers will stay on a roll, but there’s no doubt that defense will have an impact on these games on multiple occasions. Chicago CF Aaron Rowand is the anchor of its defense, and Houston 2B Craig Biggio is a veteran presence as well as a grizzled vet on the infield dirt. Ensberg has made two postseason errors at third base on the Astros ledger but shouldn’t provide a major worry for the staff. Contreras has contributed one of only three team errors over the playoffs for the White Sox; they certainly make you work for your scoring opportunities.
Edge: Slight, to White Sox

Ozzie, may I introduce you to the double switch?

It’s no secret that Chicago’s Ozzie Guillen likes to stick with his starters in meaningful games, and this postseason run has been no exception. Houston, playing in National League games, one of which went to eighteen innings, has used far more bench players in the past weeks. However, when the teams play in Minute Maid Park (I liked when it was nicknamed Ten Run Field) and pitchers bat, Guillen will have more men to use off of the bench. Here’s a rundown of a few potential key guys:

Houston
Chris Burke: Hero who sent the Astros into the ALCS, Burke is an average fielder at best, but Garner won’t be afraid to pull the trigger if he isn’t in the lineup.
Jeff Bagwell: Bagwell has had three postseason at-bats, but whether the legend pinch-hits will be determined by his health on a given night.
Mike Lamb: Nearly the Yankee third baseman after Aaron Boone’s historic injury, Lamb has been given 22 at-bats in the playoffs, including some starts, while driving in three runs and stroking to the tune of .273.

Chicago
Willie Harris: Before 2005, Harris actually started for some time, but is now mostly used to pinch run.
Timo Perez: The surprise of the Mets’ playoff run in 2000, Perez may be used to substitute in the outfield during the potentially three games played in Houston.
Pablo Ozuna: A third baseman primarily, Ozuna can play several infield positions and hit a respectable .267 over the season.

Edge: Slight, to Astros

Verdict: White Sox, in six (to paraphrase Buster Olney, I have no credibility left to ruin)


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